Category : Logic & Reasoning

Critical Thinking Logic & Reasoning Smart Thinking

Logical Fallacies: Appeals to the Mind

This is part 1 of a 6-part blog series exploring the errors in our thinking. Being humans, we all suffer from logical fallacies from time to time. Logical fallacies occur when your argument doesn’t hold true if you follow the principles of logical reasoning.

Since they are often so convincing, we all fall prey to these fallacies. In fact, because they’re so easy to take advantage of, we often do it on purpose, especially seasoned debaters.

Politicians, for example, are skilled at using our logical fallacies to their advantage, relying on the public ignorance and mass acceptance of the flaws in their logic. We’ll explore deliberate manipulations of rhetoric which aim to mislead or influence the opinions of others. The first post focuses on appeals to the mind.

Appeal to Anonymous Authority

Using evidence from experts or studies which are unnamed to claim that something is true or more likely. Usually, the claim is fabricated, but an anonymous authority is quoted to give more credence to the idea. I admit that I am often guilty of this, though it’s usually when I can’t remember the source for some information or fact.

Example: “They say that…” or “Studies have shown that…”

Appeal to Authority

Especially common at universities, this is when we claim that something is true purely because an expert, qualified or not, says that it’s true.

Example: “50 different doctors say that vaccinations cause autism.”

Appeal to Common Practice

Claiming that something is true or the best approach simply because it is commonly practiced. This argument could be used in the 18th century to justify slavery.

Example: “Every restaurant in this city handles tips in this way.”

Appeal to Popular Belief (Argumentum ad populum)

Similar to common practice, this is when we claim that something is true purely because the majority of people believe it to be true – common among religious debaters.

Example: “The jury believe that the defendant is guilty, therefore she must be.”

Appeal to Tradition

Very common in offices and other bureaucratic environments ist the claim that something is true because it’s always been that way.

Example: “We’ve always done it this way and it’s never failed us before.

Argument from Ignorance

Again, found regularly in religion – a claim must be true, simply because it’s not been proven to be false or vice versa. This shifts the burden of proof from the claimant to the opposition and is quite a lazy and defensive approach.

Example: “God must exist because you can’t prove otherwise.” or “God doesn’t exist because you can’t prove that he/she/it does”.

Appeal to Incredulity

If a claim sounds unbelievable, then it’s not possible for it to be true.

Example: “The human body is so complex that it couldn’t possibly exist by chance, we must have been designed by aliens.”

Appeal to Probability

The assumption that just because something is probable, that it is inevitable.

Example: “There are billions of galaxies, each with billions of stars and each with orbiting planets – given those numbers, aliens must exist.”

Appeal to Money

The assumption that a product/service that is more expensive is better or that wealthy people are more “right” than their poorer counterparts.

Example: “If Apple products weren’t the best, they wouldn’t be so expensive.”

The next article will cover appeals to emotion and the ways we try to use emotion or our own thoughts are influenced by emotion.

Read More
Logic & Reasoning Smart Thinking

But, It’s Just a Theory!

I have a love of learning and exploration, especially when it comes to ideas. The biggest ideas of all are religions and in my pursuit to learn about religion I’ve read the Bible, Quaran, Book of Mormon, texts by the Dalai Lama and also books on Hare Krishna movement. I’ve also explored Greek, Roman, Celtic, Native American and Norse religions to a point.

However, to get a full balanced view, I’ve also read books with opposing ideas such as The God Delusion by Richard Dawkins. I don’t identify with any religion but neither am I an athiest. However, out of all the books I’ve read, The God Delusion is the one that makes the most sense. Why? Because it’s backed up by rigorously tested theories.

But what IS a theory?

The word theory is often misunderstood, especially in my experience by strongly religious people, to mean “something that is unproven and is just an idea” for example the commonly heard “but evolution is just a theory”.

However, when the scientific community uses the word theory, they are talking about something different entirely. A theory is a an explanation of a phenomenon that is based on observation and experimentation. Experimentation produces observable facts and these facts are connected together to create a theory.

A fact is a simple, undeniable (except to philosophers) observation about the world around us. For the purposes of this post, a single fact is represented by an orange dot and will be treated as a piece of evidence.

A hypothesis is a proposed explanation for different observations. Hypotheses are formed by combining multiple known facts and serves as a basis for further exploration. These hypotheses are tested under different conditions. During the testing process, new evidence is added to our understanding allowing us to form a better idea of what is happening. However, these pieces of evidence can be interpreted in a number of ways (e.g. string theory vs. loop quantum gravity).

 

3 -Multiple Theories

 

These hypotheses are tested rigours under different conditions.

During the testing process, new facts are added to our understanding allowing us to form a better idea of what is happening. This new evidence is then used to disprove theories that contradict the evidence and can provide support for theories which include and help explain it.

 

5 - Discounted Theories

 

After the initial process of elimination, there may still be multiple legitimate combinations and interpretations of the facts. However, the combination which makes the fewest assumptions is deemed to be more likely.

6 - Remove Assumptions

 

When enough evidence is gathered to support an idea, a scientific theory is proposed.

The theory explains all existing pieces of evidence, and while it gives us a much better idea of what is actually happening, there’s often still quite a way to go until full understanding.

 

7 - Theory vs Reality

 

In summary, when a scientist explains that there is a theory, what they actually mean is “we’ve gathered a large body of evidence and through repeated experimentation and a rigorous process of elimination we’ve developed an explanation of this phenomenon which is supported by all the evidence that is available on this phenomenon.”

So next time you hear “it’s only a theory”, whether related to religion or motivation theories, feel free to point this out.

P.s. This post was influenced by an image I saw on Imgur by .

Read More
Logic & Reasoning Smart Thinking

Think Clearly With Logic

Unless you’re a mathematician or a programmer, you’ll most likely hear the term logic used to describe something sensible.

We usually refer to being logical as taking emotion out of the picture and looking at something objectively – this is partially right, but there’s a lot more to logic than that.

Logic is the formal study of what follows what. They form the principles of correct reasoning.

Our use of logic will be to ascertain the cause of a result or what result might follow from certain events.

It’s important to note that logic doesn’t deal with the content of an argument or situation, only the form and process by which you analyse it.

The facts of your argument can be incorrect, but still provide a logical outcome.

We are emotional creatures and following a logical process requires separating ourselves from the experiences and emotions that have formed our understanding and belief.

This is not an easy thing to do and it takes time and effort to think logically. This is why we don’t often use logic unless we’re incredibly emotionally invested in proving the validity or invalidity of argument.

In this way, we most often employ logic when we’re trying to be persuasive and encouraging others to let go of their emotionally fuelled opinions in favour of our  more sensible option.

Logical reasoning is the process of using arguments, premises, statements and axioms to define the truth or falsity of a statement.

Reasoning can be formal or informal.

Formal reasoning deals with the form of the argument, it’s irrelevant if the premises are true are not, so long as the proper form is followed

For example:

  1. All whales are big.
  2. All big things are slow.

Therefore all whales are slow.

The truth of the first 2 statements is irrelevant. If you assume they are true, then the last statement must be true. The proper form as been observed.

Informal reasoning is concerned not with the form of reasoning, but with content of it. Informal reasoning deals with the probability that the premises and conclusions are true. Every-day reasoning is informal.

Logic provides a great foundation for clear and focused thinking.

Read More
Logic & Reasoning Smart Thinking Think Like

How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes

My first real introduction the famous consulting detective, Sherlock Holmes, was in English class at the age of 15 with Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s The Speckled Band. This was followed quickly by The Adventure of the Yellow Face and A Case of Identity.

I was one of the few who was completely enthralled with the detective and has maintained my interest in his methods ever since.

In 2004, Sherlock Holmes (or his skills and attitude) were revived in the form of Dr Gregory House. Not only does House show the same deductive powers, often diagnosing patients at a glance, but he also has his trusty confidant Dr Wilson and displays a strong belief in his own intellectual superiority. To top it off, House lives at apartment 221B.

More recently, the excellent BBC series Sherlock was broadcast in July 2009. This modern retelling featured Benedict Cumberbatch as Sherlock Holmes and Martin Freeman as Dr John Watson. The film Sherlock Holmes featuring Robert Downey Jr. and Jude Law followed 6 months after.

With the recent reintroduction of Sherlock Holmes into modern culture, more people than ever want to know How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes.

The quick wits and sharp observational skills of Sherlock Holmes are nothing short of legendary and even though he often expresses a need for his investigations to stick with facts, he would often display a remarkable reliance on his intuition. It was obvious to him that logic and intuition played an equal part in solving the mysteries presented to him.

I wouldn’t be surprised if doubt had crept into your mind. Can a person really learn to think like Sherlock Holmes? After all, he was a fictional character and the stories including all their clues and evidence were planned in advance. Of course, Sherlock knew the cause, because the author did. So let’s take a look at the famed author, Sir Arthur Conan Doyle.

He didn’t pluck Sherlock out of thin air. His creation of the beloved detective was heavily inspired by one of his mentors, surgeon Dr Joseph Bell. Dr Bell constantly challenged his students to use their powers of observation and demonstrated his own prowess when he was able to tell at a glance that a patient was a former NCO (non-commissioned officer) in the Highland regiment who had recently returned from service in Barbados.

You can see the influence of Dr Bell on Sherlock as when he meets John Watson for the first time, this scenario plays out very closely. Sherlock is able to see that Watson is a former army doctor who was recently injured during service in the Middle East.

While Sherlock’s skills were slightly exaggerated for the sake of drama and impressing the reader, it IS possible to emulate these methods as they were inspired by a real person. But if one example alone isn’t enough to convince you, think about Arthur Conan Doyle himself. Doyle used the skills he wrote about to overturn the wrongful conviction of George Edalji, which was instrumental in driving the formation of the first court of appeals.

However, there is something we can’t ignore about Sherlock. Firstly, he’s a fictional character and so he abilities and the frequency in which he uses these abilities are highly exaggerated to make for a more entertaining read.

Secondly, a large part of Sherlock’s abilities is genetic. How do we know this? His elder brother Mycroft. Mycroft Holmes shows the same extraordinary talents that Sherlock does, identical in fact. Such a way of thinking and observing would be difficult to teach two children and would be acquired over a few decades.

It’s been theorised by multiple studies that intelligence is inherited and not a product of upbringing. Studies on adopted siblings who were raised in the same environment show no similarity in their levels of intelligence, whereas related twins and related siblings show much closer levels of intelligence.

Does this mean that you can’t learn to think like Sherlock? Absolutely not. Greater intelligence provides a much better opportunity for learning and using the skills, but doesn’t determine whether or not you can.

Being realistic, you won’t be solving crimes at a few glances like Sherlock, but through the eyes of your friends and colleagues, your methods will be just as impressive.

It’s also worth noting that we’re in a much better position to develop these skills than Doyle. When Doyle first created Sherlock many of the disciplines on which Sherlock’s knowledge is based were in their infancy and some things which are written in the books have since been disproved or revised.

This article has the advantage of being based on the hundred years of research and development that have occurred in the fields of psychology, neuroscience, philosophy and analysis since Sherlock made his first appearance.

Here are the qualities you need to hone if you want to think more like the great detective:

  • Intuition
  • Observation
  • Listening
  • Logic
  • Humility
  • Open-Mindedness

Develop Your Intuition

albert-einstein-intuition

There is an evolutionary advantage of being able to spot at a glance who is friends with whom and what a person’s emotional state is. Intuition can be developed by practice and perseverance. Although it isn’t possible to use intuition to solve everything, there are times where listening to our intuition is a useful technique. When drawing conclusions about more “human” things; relationships, connections with others and emotions intuition can be extremely helpful.

Daniel Kahneman’s international bestseller, Thinking Fast and Slow, deals heavily with intuition and is a great primer on the subject.

The book focuses on the 2 states of thinking, which Kahneman labels as systems. System 1 (intuition) is rapid, instinctive and based on emotion. System 2 is slow, deliberate and more logical.

Holmes summarised his intuition like this:

It was easier to know it than to explain why I know it. If you were asked to prove that two and two made four, you might find some difficulty, and yet you are quite sure of the fact.

Interestingly a large number of people who think of themselves as “logical” thinkers generally prefer system 2. These types of people are generally reliant on facts and evidence but are quick to dismiss intuition and gut-feelings as unscientific and unreliable. System 1 can be in this situation be referred to as intuition.

Intuition is developed through years of practice and experience with a subject until the knowledge has been internalised, similar to learning to drive a car. We all have instinctual feelings and thoughts based on previous experiences we’ve had. Most of this is unconscious and the reason behind a particular feeling or hunch is not easily explained. Malcolm Gladwell’s book, Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking, highlights how quickly our brains are able to take in multiple stimuli and in milliseconds come to a conclusion before we’ve consciously examined the situation.

In his book Mastery, Robert Greene explains how after intense focus in a discipline (the 10,000-hour rule popularised in Malcolm Gladwell’s Outliers) a person’s brain is physically altered, to the point where instinct and intuition open up a whole new level of thought. With enough study, a person can reach a level where what used to take hours of consideration can be achieved in mere seconds as a feeling or hunch. Sherlock’s great skill can be attributed to his intense focus on the study of people and circumstances.

Eventually, his study would have hit a tipping point where his intuition kicks in and takes over. Holmes summed this up when he stated: “From long habit, the train of thoughts ran so swiftly through my mind that I arrived at the conclusion without being conscious of intermediate steps”. This happened in an instant and with no effort required from Holmes, which helps to explain why he is so surprised and disappointed that everyone doesn’t see the world the way he does.

Intuition can be a powerful decision-making process if used in conjunction with the facts and evidence available. Almost everyone has made a decision based on a gut-feeling and often the outcomes of these decisions are positive and in some cases, life-saving.

A good way to look at intuition is as an “educated counsellor”. It is our subconscious that powers intuition and the subconscious has access to all our experience and observations (from being born to right now). Our subconscious can see patterns and connections long before we even realise, these connections often manifest in the form of “a gut feeling.” Although intuition cannot alone be relied upon as the sole source of decision-making information, when your hunches and gut-feelings are cross-referenced with the facts, startling conclusions can be drawn.

Learn to deduce facts from studying a person

Just by watching a person, it is sometimes possible to learn how they are feeling. Some people are naturally more skilled at this, most women are better than men as natural selection has favoured women who can quickly read a person’s emotions and intentions.

Luckily, body language can be learned and there a great number of resources for this including thousands of blogs and articles online on the subject. However, if you want to learn from the experts, my recommendations are:

A fantastic way to hone your skills is to a little time every day simply watching people as they go about their day. Good observation can tell you a great deal about a person’s habits, mannerisms and personality. Although there is a lot of guesswork involved in people watching (deliberately, because that’s what makes it fun), you can also try to hone your guesses down to identifying specific behavioural traits and mannerisms that can serve as future reference for you. Zoologist Desmond Morriss wrote a fantastic book on the subject – Peoplewatching.

Just be mindful that reading body language does have its limitations as some people are good actors or deceivers. Sometimes, particularly early on, you will make terrible mistakes, missing and misreading the signals. Make sure that what you are learning from body language is congruent with your other evidence.

Improve your power of observation

Possibly the most remarkable ability Sherlock Holmes possessed, was his observation of things that other people missed; he often stated: “You see, but you do not observe.”

Being observant is about slowing down and taking the time to look at the small details which are often overlooked. Increasingly, people rush around, spend little time observing and make assumptions based on obvious things, without considering the fine details.

You can increase your powers of observation using several methods, each of which requires practice:

The Senses

Focus on improving your sight, smell, and sound, the most commonly used senses. Because we are so used to using these senses, we often take them for granted and make assumptions about what they perceive. Fine tune and refine these 3 main senses, before focusing on touch and taste. Highly-attuned senses will give you a greater variety of information to consider.

Learn to discriminate against details that have no value. Focus on details that are relevant and significant “It is the highest importance in the art of detection to be able to recognize out of a number of facts, which are incidental and which are vital.” However, make sure not to ignore the smallest details, Holmes makes it clear that “The little things are infinitely the most important.”

Practice with spotting style puzzles. Puzzles that ask you to find the difference between different images, puzzles that ask you to find hidden words and images and puzzles that require you to navigate through mazes are all ways of honing your observation powers. Practice these frequently and time yourself to find things faster and faster without panicking.

Quick quiz yourself and start learning to pay more observational attention to your surroundings. An example of such observations “Think of your grandparents’ house. Is it a two-floored house? If so, how many steps are there? How many bedrooms? Which floors are the bedrooms on? How many beds are there in the house? Which rooms are the beds in?” If you don’t know, you see, but don’t observe; in short, teach yourself to take in all the detail you can.

Additionally, if you can stay calm and think clearly under pressure, you already have an advantage over others.

Good-ListenerBe a Better Listener

Most of us don’t listen because we are too arrogant, selfish, lazy, preoccupied or think we are sure what the speaker is trying to say.

Listening is an art and its importance can never be overestimated. Sherlock Holmes was a master artist. When a person you’re speaking to recalls everything you’ve said to them, you feel like either they possess an incredible memory or they care a great deal. Either assumption has good results for the listener.

What can sometimes seem like a great feat of magic is often a result of a great combination of concentration, courtesy and memory.

A good listener will hear not only the words that the person is saying but the meaning behind them and also the meaning of what is not said. For many reasons, politeness, social pressure etc. people often disguise their true meaning in metaphor or simply omit the message altogether. What is left out often holds more details than what is verbalised.

Never underestimate anyone. People often assume that their thoughts are more connected and complex than others. Holmes was quick to recognise and acknowledge the complexity of others –

A complex mind. All great criminals have that.

Never try to oversimplify the motivations of another person and give credit to where it is due.

A lot of good information can come from “simple” sources e.g. magazines, tabloids, gossip. Do not let your ego get the better of you. Such simple sources are a gateway to how the majority of people think.  Sherlock Holmes was an avid reader of Agony Aunt columns in the paper and clearly used this as a source of information about how people tick!  Soak up and consider everything and don’t be an intellectual snob or you’ll be throwing away a great deal of usable information.

Understand How to Read a Situation:

  • See. What is happening?
  • Observe. What do you notice that is different; a stain, a crease?
  • Deduce. What does this imply?

Use LogicIf-Then

Simply defined, logic is the study of valid reasoning. Logic is drastically underused and combined with fine observation and skilled listening will allow you to gather information and come to accurate conclusions.

As mentioned earlier, intuition is incredibly useful but should always be supported by logic and factual analysis. Sometimes, just going with your gut feeling and ignoring facts will lead to mere speculation.

Holmes advised

It is a capital mistake to theorise before you have all the evidence. It biases the judgement

Pay attention to his warning and be sure to apply evidence to your theories.

For example You observe stain in your friend’s shirt. What kind of stain is it? Food? Logically that means he’s careless. What? You know for sure that he’s very tidy and neat? Then logically he was in a hurry to get out of the house. Why? Is he on time for every class or meeting? Of course, he is, since he’s very tidy and neat, so what happened? Maybe he overslept. So you go to him or her and ask, “Did you oversleep today?” If you’re right, have fun with the reaction! So, the train of thought is; stain – food – he’s tidy – hurrying – oversleep.

Analyse Situations Using a Step-by-Step Process

Holmes was good at a process of elimination, a process by which he would dispose of the unlikely, the illogical, the uncertain, and cut narrow theories to reach what he believed to be the only logical conclusion.

When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.

The process used goes like this:

      • Twist theories to suit facts and instead of facts to suit theories. Use established, measurable and proven facts to develop your theory. If the facts mean that parts of your theory are no longer suitable, discard that part of the theory. If you ignore the fact and persevere with you existing theory, you will inevitably come to a false conclusion.
      • Who is benefiting? Find a motive; greed, anger, jealousy, lust etc. Don’t forget to include positive motives too – protection of another, guarding of a reputation, generosity etc.
      • How did they do what they did? E.g. How did he enter the building without leaving a trace? How did she manage to move the box on her own? How did she get to the meeting first even though she doesn’t drive?
      • As mentioned, keep working on the details; most people, be they criminals, detectives, or the average person, do not observe all the details and this is how they are caught or found out.
      • Go through who, when, what, where, and why facts.

Holmes’s straightforward principles largely follow:

“If ‘P’, then Q’.”

‘P’ is observed evidence and ‘Q’ is what the evidence indicates.

But there are also, midway steps. In “A Scandal in Bohemia” Holmes deduces that Watson had got very wet lately and that he had “a most clumsy and careless servant girl”. When Watson asks how Holmes knows this, Holmes answers:

It is simplicity itself … My eyes tell me that on the inside of your left shoe, just where the firelight strikes it, the leather is scored by six almost parallel cuts. Obviously they have been caused by someone who has very carelessly scraped round the edges of the sole in order to remove crusted mud from it. Hence, you see, my double deduction that you had been out in vile weather, and that you had a particularly malignant boot-slitting specimen of the London slavery.

In this case, Holmes used several connected ideas:

      • If leather on the side of a shoe is scored by several parallel cuts, it was caused by someone who scraped around the edges of the sole in order to remove crusted mud.
      • If a London doctor’s shoes are scraped to remove crusted mud, the person who so scraped them is the doctor’s servant girl.
      • If someone cuts a shoe while scraping it to remove encrusted mud, that person is clumsy and careless.
      • If someone’s shoes had encrusted mud on them, then they are likely to have been worn by him in the rain, when it is likely he became very wet.

By applying such principles in an obvious way), Holmes is able to infer from his observation that if P – “the sides of Watson’s shoes are scored by several parallel cuts” then Q – “Watson’s servant girl is clumsy and careless” and “Watson has been very wet lately and has been out in vile weather”.

This method is, however, not infallible. At the end of “The Adventure of the Yellow Face”, Holmes tells Watson;

If it should ever strike you that I am getting a little over-confident in my powers, or giving less pains to a case than it deserves, kindly whisper ‘Norbury’ in my ear, and I shall be infinitely obliged to you.

As with everything, never use one method or piece of evidence in isolation.

HumilityHumility

Humility is an attractive quality in anyone and if you master deductive reasoning, jealousy will surround you, so don’t brag about your methods. The common cliché “A magician never reveals his secrets” fits wonderfully into this scenario.

In ”A Study in Scarlet”, Holmes explained: “You know a conjurer gets no credit when once he has explained his trick; and if I show you too much of my method of working, you will come to the conclusion that I am a very ordinary individual after all.”

Sherlock didn’t believe that knowing the methods of his deduction brought benefit to anyone. In fact, he understood that revealing the manner of his deduction would dispel the effectiveness and entertainment of what he did.

Sherlock-HolmesWalk a Friend/Colleague Through Your Conclusions

This practice is another feature that Holmes and Dr House have in common. Holmes has Watson and House has Wilson (even their names are similar!)

Both Dr House and Sherlock Holmes trusted only a few people, and only once they have proved their trustworthiness and loyalty.

Nothing clears up a case so much as stating it to another person. Make sure you talk through your conclusions with someone you trust. Dr. House would use both Wilson and his “team” to bounce ideas off of each other.

In almost every case, some irrelevant phrase spoken by one these trusted people would trigger a thought which would lead to the right conclusion, or diagnosis in Dr. House’s case.

Keep an Open Mind

It may be that talking your theory through with another person will spark new ideas that can be incorporated into your conclusion or may even replace your original theory.  It’s also possible that another person may disagree with your inferences and proposes a different equally logical theory.

While it may seem that what you see before is incredibly simple and clear, appearances can be deceiving. Sherlock Holmes was well aware of this and used it to his advantage in unscrambling a myriad of possibilities which cannot be explained solely by what you can see and hear.

Holmes knew to balanced intuition with logic, he drew conclusions from details and he listened carefully.

Yet, he also kept an open mind and accepted that some possibilities may yet be unexplained

Life is infinitely stranger than anything which the mind of man could invent.

Some things exist that are difficult to explain and it pays to open to all manner of possibility in this scenario (e.g. the existent of one or more deities).

Make Sure You Have Fun

One of the key factors people tend to forget when trying to solve a problem or come up with an idea is to STOP thinking about it. Holmes worked incredibly hard when investigating, but he understood the importance of leisure and relaxation. Often, Sherlock would take Watson to an opera half-way through an investigation. When you relax, your subconscious begins to whir away behind the scenes, creating connections between your subject of study and other aspects of your knowledge and experience. This is why some of the greatest ideas can come in the shower or when going for a walk. Constantly thinking and pushing your intuition can be exhausting, so taking time to recover is essential to ensure you can remain sharp and focused.

Key Points

      • Observing body language is a great way to learn more about a situation, but 20% of the time body language will be misleading. Trust it too much and you’ll likely make some big mistakes.
      • Don’t rush into making decisions before you’ve considered all available evidence. Reflect on the facts multiple times. Fast decisions often come from instinct and past experience or training. Give yourself plenty of time to analyse all the facts and come to a conclusion.
      • Don’t share your ideas until you are a 99% sure you’re right. If you end up making an odd prediction based only on intuition and no evidence and the situation ends up being completely different, you may be seen as unreliable and too quick to judge
      • Most importantly, try not to overlook anything, no matter how small. Also ALWAYS use a combination of evidence, intuition and logic to come to a conclusion. Never rely on a sole source of information or an isolated method.

Further Reading

If you want to learn more about thinking like Sherlock Holmes, these 3 books are probably the best next steps you can take:

Read More
1 2